Yes, investing the time and resources to develop on an unproven standard always comes with a risk of it not taking off. Even with technology such as the FinSix Dart hinting at the rise of HDPLEX / PicoPSU, we could be having the same conversation comparing it to the next big (small?) thing.
In particular though, I don't like the fact that Dart is built upon patented technology and effectively has a monopoly until someone comes up with a different way to achieve the same result. So for now, you end up with a system that has DC-ATX inside (HDPLEX / PicoPSU) and either a standard AC-DC laptop brick (which is an available strategy today), or you buy into the success of FinSix and only FinSix, as opposed to other PSU form factors that are open and supported by multiple companies.
Now don't get me wrong, I don't take any of your doubts lightly; you're all experienced people in the subject, and I'm sure
@ilovelampshade has had experience with FlexATX before I even knew about the standard. But there are several circumstances that only recently arose that gave me some confidence in the standard:
1) The general trend with Intel is to value efficiency over significant performance jumps (reported
here, for example).
In contrast to Haswell's 84W standard with "low-wattage" chips at 65W. Skylake comes out with 65W as the standard TDP. We will continue to see TDP drop.
2) The trend of GPUs getting smaller and using less power while gaining performance boosts. This is advantageous for SFF as a whole, until GPUs reach a point that they are integrated onto the motherboard -- at which point NUCs will take over SFF.
3) The combination of the above makes for a situation where we stand now -- the FlexATX standard is able to supply much more wattage than what a build needs. For example, a i5-6400 + GTX 1060 build uses 240W, just a bit under 50% of a FSP500 unit. Or with a FSP400, that is 60%. As we know, fan curves are exponential, so the lower % load tend to let the fan spin much slower (if at all). This means that for the first time, we may be able to see the FlexATX run a respectable system without needing to stress the 40mm fan (and our ears for that matter).
4) The FlexATX unit that is both consumer-pc-ready with an 8-pin PEG, and is accessible to consumers happened. It is the FSP400 on Amazon that
@Gautam presented to us in his build log. This is both insignificant and significant, depending on how you look at it. Yes, it is only 1 model, by 1 company, sold at 1 outlet. But it happened, and definitely for a reason. Is this the start of a trend? Perhaps, if there's demand. And for all intents and purpose, I want to do my part in trying to make that trend happen.
On a lighter note, Hutzy XS supports both FlexATX and HDPlex mounting, so I will be okay