I went in the test with those expectations as well. When testing Toughfan 12 and A12x15 on a radiator outside the case it seemed that there was no contest. Both at full speed, Toughfan 12 had noticeably more airflow and was probably a bit quieter. I was too puzzled by the result.
I think there's something introduced by the case. The noise profile is quite different with/without the top panel on for example. With the top panel off, the A12x15s have mostly a motor sound. With the top panel on, the motor sound is somewhat suppressed, but there's now a more prominent airflow sound. My hypothesis is that a good proportion of the noise simply scales with the amount of airflow, so a good fan's advantage is diminished because it can't eliminate the noise of air moving through the panel.
I happen to come across this
article today, which tested different fan grills. Most of them generated significant additional noise (although it was tested with the grill on the intake rather than exhaust side).
Still, that doesn't actually explain why Toughfan 12 was
worse when noise-normalized (if we assume that they are as good as A12x25, which may or may not be true). So I pulled them out again and ran them outside the case, but sandwiched between a radiator (tried TX240 and Hanjiang 17mm) and the T1's top panel, pushing air through the panel. Again I noticed a similar situation to A12x15 where without the panel it's almost purely motor noise and it turns into an airflow noise with the panel.
What's more interesting though is that Toughfan 12 generates pretty significant turbulence noise under this scenario (think about wind blowing through two pieces of paper). When it's only pushing through the top panel, or only pulling through the radiator, there is no issue. I only hear turbulence when it's sandwiched between the top panel and the radiator. It's noticeable with TX240, and much louder with Hanjiang 17mm. So Toughfan 12 is probably not well-suited in this setup.
I wonder if A12x25 has this phenomenon (unexpected turbulence noise) as well. Just by how highly I regard Noctua I'm assuming no. But would be interested if others can try this with A12x25 in the setup I described.