I was a little bit slow today at work and was looking through a database of video cards, and more importantly the release dates. I noticed something:
Nvidia releases a new architecture about every 2 years fairly consistently.
200 (Tesla) - June 2008
400 (Fermi) Mar 2010
600 (Kepler) Mar 2012
750 (Maxwell) Feb 2014
10 (Pascal) May 2016
So obviously Pascal won't be replaced until around May 2018. However the release of mid series is not so much like clockwork. It seems Nvidia will release the refresh depending on the strength of competition. For example, AMD was strong in 2010-2011 so Nvidia released the GTX 580 only 8 months after the 480. That card lasted almost 1.5 years until the 680 came out. The 680 lasted around 1 year before the 780, and 780 about 1.5 years till the 980, and 980 over 1.5 years till 1080. During this time Nvidia's position was strengthening and Nvidia was weak.
So not to state the obvious but, if AMD's Vega is truly strong, I would expect that Nvidia won't release a GTX 1080 ti, but will start fresh with a new series and release the GTX 1180 by the summer.
I also have a feeling that Nvidia may not release an 11 series, partly because the name sounds weird but also for another reason: Nvidia hasn't released a sub 50 series card in almost 3 years aside from the GT 710. The naming convention isn't so great anymore because of this, i mean it does make their cards sound good because even the lowest end GTX is a "50" out of "100" right?
So two predictions:
Do you guys have any predictions for this year?
Nvidia releases a new architecture about every 2 years fairly consistently.
200 (Tesla) - June 2008
400 (Fermi) Mar 2010
600 (Kepler) Mar 2012
750 (Maxwell) Feb 2014
10 (Pascal) May 2016
So obviously Pascal won't be replaced until around May 2018. However the release of mid series is not so much like clockwork. It seems Nvidia will release the refresh depending on the strength of competition. For example, AMD was strong in 2010-2011 so Nvidia released the GTX 580 only 8 months after the 480. That card lasted almost 1.5 years until the 680 came out. The 680 lasted around 1 year before the 780, and 780 about 1.5 years till the 980, and 980 over 1.5 years till 1080. During this time Nvidia's position was strengthening and Nvidia was weak.
So not to state the obvious but, if AMD's Vega is truly strong, I would expect that Nvidia won't release a GTX 1080 ti, but will start fresh with a new series and release the GTX 1180 by the summer.
I also have a feeling that Nvidia may not release an 11 series, partly because the name sounds weird but also for another reason: Nvidia hasn't released a sub 50 series card in almost 3 years aside from the GT 710. The naming convention isn't so great anymore because of this, i mean it does make their cards sound good because even the lowest end GTX is a "50" out of "100" right?
So two predictions:
- Nvidia will drop the current naming convention and come up with something new since Mobile and desktop cards are the same, and desktop cards don't have lower level configurations anymore.
- Nvidia will release the new generation (not new architecture) by summer time - except if Vega sucks, then I predict Nvidia will wait until October, and a 1080 ti will come out before May.
- And a third for the heck of it: Nvidia will release or announce an SOC for Windows powered laptops by the end of summer 2017. Maybe a Denver quad core CPU + Pascal graphics?
Do you guys have any predictions for this year?